Don’t say you weren’t warned. This season has been something else, and that’s being kind to NASCAR. It was clear in January that the Next Gen car was not ready. What followed was chaos and unexpected winners. If you’re late to the party, don’t worry because races are only becoming more unpredictable and drivers with long odds are more and more viable. As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 at Talladega, which gets underway Sunday, October 2 at 2 p.m. ET.

The long shots keep coming through. The Best Bets article did not predict the specific long shot winner for the second week in a row at Bristol (it did have Brad Keselowski at +10,000), but the strategy was once again correct. The Next Gen car is a mess and it gets messier every week. Long live the long shot. As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas, which gets underway Sunday, September 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

How about that Bubba Wallace +2000 pick at Kansas? There’s no time for victory laps, and if there were, a lap is 15 seconds at Bristol. Time to move on to the The Last Great Colosseum. If the 2022 season wasn’t chaotic enough, now the Next Gen car will face its biggest test yet at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile. As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, which gets underway Saturday, September 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET.